Ana Faguy
BBC News, Washington DC
Christal Hayes
BBC News, Los Angeles
Max Matza
BBC News, Seattle
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Brent Dmitruk is known as an earthquake predictor.
In mid-October, he informed his large social media following that an earthquake would soon hit the westernmost point of California, south of Eureka.
Two months later, a magnitude 7.3 earthquake struck northern California – leading to a tsunami warning and increasing Mr. Dmitruk’s online followers as they sought his predictions for future earthquakes.
“To those who doubt what I do, how can you argue it’s just a coincidence. It takes skill to predict where earthquakes will occur,” he said on New Year’s Eve.
However, scientists who study earthquakes argue that earthquakes cannot be predicted.
Lucy Jones, a seismologist with more than three decades of experience, has focused on earthquake probabilities and enhancing resilience to withstand such catastrophic events.
Ms. Jones explained that the unpredictability of earthquakes is what makes them so frightening, as millions of people on the west coast of North America fear the potential impact of a major earthquake.
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The deadliest earthquake in recent US history was the Northridge earthquake in Los Angeles, which killed 57 and injured thousands.
Ms. Jones emphasized that while people often seek answers about when “the big one” might occur, predicting such events is not scientifically possible.
The USGS states that while earthquake probabilities can be calculated for specific regions within a certain timeframe, accurate prediction of earthquakes remains beyond current capabilities.
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The devastating 1906 earthquake left San Francisco in ruins
Records show that major earthquakes, referred to as “the big one”, do occur periodically, such as the Cascadia subduction zone slipping every 300 to 500 years.
While some individuals, like Mr. Dmitruk, continue to make predictions about major earthquakes, experts caution that true earthquake predictions must include specific details such as date, location, and magnitude – elements which Mr. Dmitruk’s predictions have lacked.
Este tipo de pensamiento es común cuando se trata de terremotos, dijo la Sra. Jones. “Las distribuciones aleatorias pueden parecer que tienen patrones, vemos constelaciones en las estrellas”, dijo ella. “Mucha gente tiene miedo de los terremotos, y la forma de lidiar con eso es predecir cuándo va a suceder”.