Botswana’s ruling party, in power for nearly sixty years, is attempting a strategic move in the upcoming general election by adopting a phrase typically associated with opposition groups.
In their manifesto, the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) is advocating for “change.”
“Let’s embrace change together and work towards prosperity for all,” President Mokgweetsi Masisi, who has been leading the country since 2018, states in the introduction.
This is an acknowledgment that a different approach is needed – a point the opposition party argues the president’s party is incapable of.
While experts suggest that the election outcome is uncertain this time around, the BDP has consistently secured significant parliamentary majorities in the 11 elections held since gaining independence in 1966.
The party has also consistently won the presidency, as members of parliament elect the head of state.
The BDP is widely recognized for overseeing a peaceful and remarkable transformation of a once impoverished nation, with minimal tarred roads at independence, into a country where average living standards rank among the highest on the continent.
At the core of this transformation are Botswana’s extensive diamond reserves – making it the world’s leading producer of the gemstone in terms of value.
However, not all is well.
Botswana is grappling with significant economic challenges, prompting Masisi to emphasize the need for change.
According to the World Bank, more than a quarter of the working population is unemployed, with even higher rates among younger individuals.
Zibani Maundeni, a political science professor at the University of Botswana, describes it as a “jobless economy.”
In addition, Botswana’s wealth is unequally distributed among its 2.3 million inhabitants, making it one of the most unequal countries globally based on the Gini index.
Furthermore, the global demand for diamonds, a cornerstone of Botswana’s economy, is dwindling.
Nevertheless, Masisi and his party exude confidence.
During a campaign rally in a traditionally opposition-leaning region in central Botswana, the president arrived in an electric vehicle manufactured in the country, showcasing his arrival with a dance and warm interaction with supporters dressed in party colors.
The region, home to former President Ian Khama, elected three opposition MPs in 2019 after Khama departed from the BDP to establish the Botswana Patriotic Front (BPF), citing regret over choosing Masisi as his successor.
The rift between the two leaders led to Khama leaving the country, accusing the government of attempting to harm him.
Khama faced charges of money laundering and other offenses, which he denies.
This situation also marked the end of his family’s political dominance, as his father, Sir Seretse Khama, was Botswana’s first president and served for 14 years from independence in 1966.
“I apologize, please return home and encourage others to do the same,” Masisi implored at the rally, urging voters to rejoin the BDP.
Thandiwe Potso, a 32-year-old salon owner, expressed confidence in Masisi, commending his understanding of challenges and support for local businesses.
Kabelo Selemo, a 45-year-old small-business owner, echoed this sentiment, crediting Masisi’s policies for local growth and self-sufficiency.
However, an opinion poll suggests that not everyone may be easily swayed.
A report by Afrobarometer earlier this year highlighted negative public perception of the government in Botswana, citing concerns of corruption despite the country’s strong ranking in good governance on the continent.
BDP spokesperson Kagelelo Banks Kentse questioned the credibility of the poll, emphasizing the party’s track record and commitment to addressing challenges, including unemployment.
While acknowledging the grim unemployment statistics, Kentse assured voters of the party’s plans to create more jobs and enhance economic opportunities.
He also highlighted a recent agreement with diamond giant De Beers, ensuring a higher share of diamond profits for Botswana.
However, opposition leader Dumelang Saleshando criticized the government for lack of originality, claiming the BCP had proposed similar initiatives earlier.
Despite differing views, both parties are actively campaigning with slogans like “Save Botswana” and “Change,” appealing to voters ahead of the crucial election.
En el pasado siempre ha intentado decir que se trata de mantener la estabilidad – más de lo mismo – y por pánico están tratando de predicar lo que no creen.
El líder de la UDC, Duma Boko (R con corbata azul), ha alegado que ha habido intentos de amañar las elecciones [AFP]
Los partidarios de otro partido de oposición – la Coalición para el Cambio Democrático (UDC), que obtuvo la segunda mayor parte de los votos en 2019, salieron en masa en el norte de la capital, Gaborone.
Vestidos con camisetas azul y blancas y sombreros de sol, vitorearon al líder Duma Boko.
A diferencia de Masisi, Boko generalmente se mantuvo serio, para enfatizar cuánto estaba sufriendo la gente bajo el BDP.
Alegó que hubo intentos de amañar la votación.
“Les insto a todos a estar atentos y después de votar al BDP permanezcan en la mesa electoral para vigilar su voto”, dijo.
Thapelo Dimpe, un ex profesor de 45 años, no tiene dudas sobre por qué quiere ver derrotado al partido del presidente.
“Masisi nos ha defraudado en la reforma educativa. La UDC planea invertir en nuestras escuelas y empoderar a nuestros jóvenes con la educación que merecen”, dijo.
Aunque el gobierno tiene una serie de problemas que podrían mermar su apoyo, las divisiones de la oposición podrían permitir al BDP mantenerse en el poder.
Cada diputado es elegido en un sistema de primera-past-post, lo que significa que para ganar un escaño, el BDP sólo necesita el mayor número de votos en una circunscripción en lugar de más del 50%.
En un escaño donde la UDC, el BCP o el BPF – o una serie de otros partidos – se presentan, podría significar que el voto de la oposición se divide, permitiendo al BDP entrar.
“Estos partidos parecen tener faccionalismo dentro de sí mismos, siguen llevando problemas internos a los medios de comunicación – no están realmente unidos”, dijo el analista político Lesole Machacha a la BBC.
Pero también señaló que el BDP tenía sus propios problemas.
“El partido gobernante no está al 100% intacto – también está teniendo problemas. En algunas circunscripciones, los políticos del BDP que no estaban contentos con el proceso primario se presentan como candidatos independientes, lo que podría dividir ese voto”, dijo el Sr. Machacha.
Todo esto hace que las elecciones sean reñidas e impredecibles, añadió.
Para uno de los partidos políticos más exitosos de África, la pregunta ahora es si suficientes personas están convencidas de que puede supervisar el cambio que el país necesita.
Más historias de la BBC sobre Botswana:
[Getty Images/BBC]
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