Regular power cuts had become a common occurrence in South Africa, causing concern about the direction of the country. However, electricity supply has been consistently stable since March, sparking curiosity about the changes that have taken place.
[BBC]
On a clear winter day in Johannesburg, the township of Alexandra, known as Alex, bustles with activity under a shimmering blue sky.
Sizeka Rashamosa stands in her restaurant surrounded by people delivering supplies and cooking food. A group of young men sit at a table in the sun.
“I can’t talk right now, I’m busy,” she says.
When we first met in March last year during the peak of South Africa’s power crisis and frequent load-shedding, Ms. Rashamosa had minimal electricity and only one customer, reflecting the broader impact on the economy.
“Electricity is everything,” she said at the time. “I’m very stressed. We don’t have money because of the electricity. I don’t think we can survive. We’ll have to close after 25 years. It’s terrible.”
But now, when she finally has a moment to chat, things are looking up.
“Load-shedding has improved significantly now,” she says. “You can see, there’s electricity. I’m busy. I’m going to stay open, no plans to close anymore.”
This turnaround is remarkable.
Load-shedding started in 2007, reaching a low point last year with power cuts lasting over half a day.
This year, it was expected to worsen. However, there has been no load-shedding for over four months – the longest break in over four years since 05:00 on 26 March to be exact.
How did this transformation occur, and will power cuts return?
It is mainly due to a series of programs from the state-owned power provider Eskom and the government over the past two years.
In July 2022, President Cyril Ramaphosa announced the Energy Action Plan, and the following February declared a national state of disaster over the electricity crisis.
Shortly after, he appointed an electricity minister, Kgosientsho Ramokgopa, and Eskom launched the two-year Generation Operational Recovery Plan to increase the amount of power to 70% of the network’s potential.
Eskom also revamped its leadership, which many consider a crucial factor.
For years, the company had been plagued by corruption under former President Jacob Zuma, resulting in “state capture” and acts of theft and sabotage.
“If you look at them now, it’s a good mix. You have technical people, financial people, and turnaround experts,” says energy analyst Ruse Moleshe.
“Our 40,000 employees are more committed and motivated now because load-shedding was discouraging and morale was low,” says Daphne Mokwena, Eskom’s national spokesperson.
Another significant development last year was a 254 billion rand ($14 billion) debt-relief package from the treasury to address Eskom’s financial challenges.
As a result, unplanned outages at Eskom’s power stations decreased, allowing for planned maintenance to be conducted.
This led to increased energy capacity, reaching 35,000 MW on 23 July, the highest in six years.
“There’s been a pipeline of large projects,” says energy expert Chris Yelland, referring to the initiatives implemented since July 2022.
“It’s like stuffing marbles into a pipe, and eventually, they start popping out.”
External factors, such as decreasing demand for electricity due to rising energy costs and the adoption of alternative energy sources, have also contributed to the improved situation.
“Every year, Eskom raises electricity prices above the inflation rate, and there has been a significant increase in solar and battery energy storage systems across various sectors,” says Mr. Yelland.
Sluggish economic growth has also alleviated pressure on power demand.
Minister Ramokgopa acknowledges that load-shedding played a role in the ANC’s disappointing election results in May.
“Our core base was not convinced that the administration could resolve the problem,” he admits.
Hemos pagado la multa, estamos aquí, el gobierno de unidad nacional está comprometido con eso y con resolver el problema sudafricano. Estoy confiado en que lo haremos bien. Como resultado de los cambios, ¿es el corte de energía cosa del pasado? “Es demasiado pronto para reclamar la victoria”, dijo el Presidente Ramaphosa en un discurso el mes pasado. “Nuestro sistema eléctrico aún es vulnerable y aún no podemos descartar posibles desafíos en el futuro”. Todavía hay cortes de energía ocasionales, lo que se conoce como “reducción de carga”, donde Eskom apaga la energía en áreas de alto uso para evitar daños en la infraestructura local, como transformadores, lo que a su vez llevaría a cortes de energía más prolongados. Eskom atribuye esto principalmente a conexiones ilegales y hacinamiento de propiedades, lo que tanto él como el gobierno se refieren como “ocupantes de patios traseros”. El gobierno dice que el 5% de los hogares sudafricanos se ven afectados por la reducción de carga. Pero las cosas parecen ser genuinamente positivas. “Todavía no hemos salido del bosque, pero la probabilidad de que volvamos al corte de energía es muy baja si seguimos haciendo lo que estamos haciendo actualmente”, dice Daphne Mokwena. De vuelta en Alex, la Sra. Rashamosa se está preparando para un fin de semana ocupado, algo que no podría haber imaginado el año pasado. “La vida es mucho mejor ahora”, dice, y luego se va corriendo hacia la parte de atrás de su restaurante.