“Getty Images: Russia has resumed large-scale missile strikes on Ukraine in an effort to gain a military advantage. In recent days, both the US and Russia have taken significant actions to influence the outcome of the war in Ukraine, just two months before Donald Trump’s return to the White House. Moscow is pushing to maximize its gains while Biden is seen abandoning long-held red lines before Trump’s promise to end the war quickly.
Ukraine has already acted on Biden’s decision to allow Kyiv to launch long-range ATACMS missiles into Russian territory. As Kyiv fights to maintain control in the east, Biden has pledged to send anti-personnel landmines as well. The arrival of North Korean troops on the front line prompted Biden’s change of heart, seen as a “massive escalation” by the US.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has further escalated tensions by loosening the conditions for the use of Russia’s nuclear weapons, claiming this eliminates the possibility of defeat on the battlefield. Some believe Putin sees the current situation as advantageous for Russia in Ukraine.
Russia’s recent aerial attack on Ukraine, the largest in almost three months, has raised fears of further strikes. The closure of Western embassies on Wednesday highlighted the escalating tensions. Mykhaylo Samus, a geopolitical expert in Ukraine, believes Russia’s stockpiling of missiles is a psychological message ahead of the change in power in Washington DC.
The situation is seen as a preparation for negotiations with Trump, with Russia aiming to maintain a strong position. However, experts are skeptical of the possibility of a deal with Putin, as his ultimate goal may be to subjugate Ukraine. The conflict has already lasted 1,000 days since Russia’s invasion, with Russian forces continuing relentless attacks in the east.
The revised Russian nuclear doctrine allows for the use of nuclear weapons against non-nuclear countries supported by nuclear powers. This change is seen as a warning to potential adversaries rather than an operational plan. Putin’s actions are perceived as an attempt to intimidate Western elites.
The future beyond January remains uncertain, with Kremlin insiders outlining minimal demands for any Trump initiative to end the war. Zelensky has made it clear that Ukraine will continue to fight even if military aid is cut. Putin insists on Ukraine’s neutrality for any relations to work, despite Ukraine’s aspirations to join NATO and the EU.
Zelensky presented a resilience plan to parliament, emphasizing Ukraine’s determination to achieve its goals, even if it means outliving leaders in Moscow. The situation in Ukraine is tense, with the possibility of further escalation looming.” Getty Images para restaurar la plena integridad de Ucrania.
Un día Rusia estaría sin Putin, en otras palabras, pero Ucrania no iría a ninguna parte.
Para los ucranianos esa espera podría llevar años, dice Mykhaylo Samus, pero nunca consentirían en abandonar Crimea u cualquier otro territorio bajo ocupación rusa.
Lo máximo que Zelensky podría estar dispuesto a firmar sería un alto el fuego sin compromisos, cree. Cualquier otra cosa llevaría a un conflicto interno ya que muchos lo verían como una traición.
Antes de cualquier conversación, Mykola Bielieskov del Instituto Nacional de Estudios Estratégicos en Kiev cree que la clave es evitar cualquier avance ruso importante en el este.
“Para nosotros es necesario solamente localizar los avances rusos… usando Atacms, minas terrestres antipersonal o lo que sea. Porque si los rusos tienen éxito, intentarían dictar los términos.”
Hablando con la BBC desde Kharkiv, Jade McGlynn dijo que pocos ucranianos creían que Trump sería capaz de negociar algún tipo de acuerdo de paz duradero.
Cualquier tipo de acuerdo que dejara a Ucrania en una posición mucho peor llevaría a un caos político, dijo.
“Europa necesita intervenir”, dijo, “y en última instancia sabemos que los escandinavos, los estados bálticos y Polonia no son suficientes.”