Recently, Donald Trump’s son Donald Jr visited Greenland. In recent weeks, there has been renewed interest from US President-elect Donald Trump in taking control of Greenland, a largely autonomous territory of Denmark in the Arctic and the world’s largest island. Trump first mentioned his intention to buy Greenland in 2019 during his first term as president, but he has now gone further by not ruling out the use of economic or military force to acquire it. Danish and European officials have responded negatively, stating that Greenland is not for sale and its territorial integrity must be maintained. The situation raises questions about the future of Greenland, with its significant untapped mineral wealth and aspirations for independence among its population of 56,000, who have been under Danish control for 300 years. Here, we explore four possible scenarios for Greenland’s future.
1. Trump loses interest, nothing happens: Some speculate that Trump’s actions are merely a tactic to pressure Denmark into increasing security in Greenland due to the threat of Russian and Chinese influence in the region. Denmark recently announced a new military package for the Arctic, which was prepared before Trump’s remarks but coincidentally announced shortly after. Even if Trump loses interest in Greenland, he has brought attention to the issue, which could impact future developments.
2. Greenland votes for independence, seeks closer ties with the US: There is a consensus in Greenland that independence will eventually occur, and Denmark would likely accept and ratify it if Greenland votes for independence. However, guarantees regarding subsidies for healthcare and welfare from Denmark would be crucial for Greenland to consider independence. A possible next step could be a free association similar to the US’s relationship with Pacific states. Greenland’s historical experience and evolving relationship with Denmark may influence future decisions.
3. Trump steps up economic pressure: Speculation suggests that Trump’s economic threats could pose a significant risk to Denmark, potentially leading to increased tariffs on Danish or EU goods. Danish governments have been preparing for such scenarios, as Trump’s policies could disrupt European growth and impact industries like pharmaceuticals, which export products to the US.
4. Trump invades Greenland: While considered a far-fetched scenario, Trump’s refusal to rule out military action raises concerns. The US already has a presence in Greenland with bases and troops, making it theoretically feasible for them to take control. “Getty Images
“Los Estados Unidos ya tienen control de facto,” dice el Profesor Jacobsen, agregando que los comentarios de Trump parecían desinformados y no entendía su punto.
Dicho esto, cualquier uso de fuerza militar por parte de Washington crearía un incidente internacional.
“Si invaden Groenlandia, invaden la OTAN,” dice Svane. “Entonces ahí se detiene. El Artículo 5 tendría que ser activado. Y si un país de la OTAN invade la OTAN, entonces no hay OTAN.”
El Dr. Gad dice que Trump suena como el Presidente chino Xi Jinping hablando de Taiwán o el ruso Vladimir Putin hablando de Ucrania.
“Está diciendo que es legítimo para nosotros tomar este pedazo de tierra,” dice. “Si lo tomamos realmente en serio, esto es un mal presagio para toda la alianza occidental.”
Reporte adicional por George Sandeman
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